The World Watches
Today in The World Watches, all eyes are on the confirmed Trump–Putin summit in Alaska, set for August 15. Notably, Ukraine remains excluded—a pattern stretching back to February’s Munich conference and repeated US–Russia backchannel dealings in recent months. European leaders warn of a looming “Yalta 2.0,” fearing decisions about Ukraine’s future may be struck without Kyiv’s input, echoing five months of sidelined Ukrainian participation. This persistent exclusion has left Ukrainians increasingly wary of imposed settlements and a further erosion of sovereignty, while intensifying debate over the legitimacy and durability of any potential peace.
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Global Gist
In Global Gist:
- **Gaza:** Israel’s security cabinet formalizes plans to occupy Gaza City, following months of intense operations that have killed over 269 journalists since October 2023. Germany’s halt on arms exports to Israel marks a significant Western policy break amid mounting civilian and press casualties.
- **Sudan:** Famine grips North Darfur’s Zamzam camp, where a siege by RSF paramilitaries has blocked aid, echoing a year of escalating violence and brutal attacks on civilians and aid workers.
- **US–China Tech:** Nvidia and AMD resume China chip sales under a new US rule: 15% of revenue goes to Washington, reflecting a pivot from outright bans to managed leverage in the ongoing tech rivalry.
- **Red Sea Trade:** Shipping risks and costly detours persist as the Suez Canal Authority considers fee discounts to lure vessels back, following months of disruptions from regional instability.
- **Palestinian Statehood:** Australia will recognize a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly next month, joining a wave of Western nations reassessing their stance as the Gaza conflict grinds on.
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Insight Analytica
In Insight Analytica, the Alaska summit’s exclusion of Ukraine is not a diplomatic oversight—it’s a deliberate trend. Since early 2025, Trump has pursued direct deals with Russia, often sidelining not just Ukraine but also European partners. As history shows, agreements without key stakeholder buy-in—recall the 2015 Minsk process—rarely yield lasting peace. The EU’s anxiety over the “Yalta 2.0” dynamic is rooted in repeated failures of externally imposed settlements, while Ukrainians fear their sovereignty may be further compromised.
Meanwhile, Israel’s strategy in Gaza—formalizing occupation after devastating assaults—comes amid a record toll on journalists and civilians, with the majority of press deaths worldwide in the past year occurring there. Germany’s arms embargo is unprecedented, signaling a major shift in Western tolerance for Israel’s conduct and raising questions about alliance cohesion.
On the tech front, the US’s new chip revenue policy with China signals an evolution in trade and security policy: seeking economic leverage rather than isolation, while China simultaneously invests in its own semiconductor independence.
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AI Context Discovery
Historical searches performed for this analysis:
• Trump–Putin summit and Ukraine exclusion (6 months)
• Israel's occupation of Gaza and journalist casualties (6 months)
• Sudan famine North Darfur and RSF violence (6 months)
• Sahel Alliance of States and ECOWAS relations (6 months)
• US–China tech trade restrictions Nvidia AMD chip sales (6 months)
• Global Red Sea trade disruptions and Suez Canal rerouting (6 months)
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