The World Watches
Today in The World Watches, we focus on Greenland and transatlantic rupture. As night falls over the North Atlantic, Washington threatens 10% tariffs — rising to 25% by June — on eight European allies for opposing a U.S. move to control Greenland. London, Paris, Berlin, and Copenhagen push back; EU officials say the broader EU–US trade track is “on hold,” and defense shares in Europe climb on risk. Our historical review shows two weeks of mounting Arctic brinkmanship: NATO capitals warned that any U.S. takeover bid could “end NATO,” Greenland’s government reaffirmed protection under NATO, and talks this week ended in stalemate. Why it leads: the collision of economic coercion with alliance cohesion, the island’s critical minerals and Arctic routes, and the timing alongside other thinning guardrails — notably New START’s looming expiry.
Global Gist
Today in Global Gist, the hour’s essentials — and what’s underplayed
- Gaza governance: A U.S.-backed Palestinian technocratic committee published its mission to restore services under a “Board of Peace.” Israel objected to the board’s lineup; multiple reports say invitees were asked to pay $1 billion for permanent seats. Context checks confirm Phase 2 began this week amid aid restrictions and contested authority.
- Space: NASA’s Artemis II SLS and Orion reached the pad in Florida, a final milestone before crewed lunar orbit — the first in over 50 years.
- Security: The U.S. struck northwest Syria, killing a leader tied to an IS ambush; Iraq says it now fully controls Ain al-Asad Air Base after U.S. withdrawal phases. In the South China Sea, a PLA drone transited near Taiwan-held Pratas, prompting Taipei protests.
- Trade: EU–Mercosur signed a landmark deal in Asunción after 26 years. Canada cut EV tariffs on China to 6.1% with volume caps; China reduces duties on Canadian farm exports.
- Americas domestic: Protests swelled in Minneapolis after the ICE killing of Renee Good; the administration doubled down on tactics. Guatemala faces coordinated prison riots with 46 hostages.
- Ukraine: Kyiv can meet only ~50–60% of power demand after sustained strikes; Zelensky ordered accelerated imports of electricity and equipment. Our checks trace grid attacks since November and an energy emergency declared this week.
Underreported, confirmed by historical checks:
- Sudan: Famine confirmed in El Fasher and Kadugli; 33 million need aid. The UN warns food pipelines may run dry within months without $700 million.
- Haiti: A Feb 7 governance cliff approaches with gangs controlling most of Port-au-Prince; elections slip to at least August 2026.
- Uganda: Museveni claimed a seventh term amid an internet blackout, arrests, and opposition confinement.
Insight Analytica
Today in Insight Analytica, the threads
- Power by pricing: Tariffs over Greenland, a reported pay-to-play peace board, and EV/commodity swap deals show economic leverage as the new front line of statecraft.
- Infrastructure as battlespace: Ukraine’s grid under fire, PLA drones probing airspace, and data-center buildouts constrained by labor echo the strategic premium on energy, compute, and airspace.
- The attention deficit: Funding and coverage lag the world’s largest caseloads — Sudan, Haiti, Myanmar — even as nuclear guardrails fray. New START expires in 20 days; there’s no successor.
AI Context Discovery
Historical searches performed for this analysis:
• US push to acquire/annex Greenland, allied response, NATO implications (3 months)
• Gaza ceasefire Phase 2 and US-backed governance boards/committees (3 months)
• Sudan genocide/famine and coverage gap (3 months)
• Ukraine energy infrastructure strikes and power shortages (3 months)
• Haiti governance vacuum ahead of Feb 7 constitutional deadline (3 months)
• Uganda 2026 election environment, repression, internet blackout (1 month)
• New START treaty expiry status and nuclear risk (3 months)
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