The World Watches
Today in The World Watches, we focus on the New START treaty’s final hours. For the first time in over 50 years, there will be no bilateral cap on U.S.–Russian strategic warheads. As the clock runs out today, Moscow signals it is “ready for a world with no nuclear limits,” while late chatter hints at a possible one-year stopgap. Why this leads: the systemic risk, the timing, and the vacuum it opens in launch notifications, inspections, and data exchanges that have underpinned crisis stability. Our historical scan confirms weeks of sparse U.S.–Russia contact, followed by a last-minute spike in diplomacy and warnings of a renewed arms race.
Global Gist
Today in Global Gist:
- Nigeria: Abuja deploys an army battalion to Kwara after ISIS‑linked Lakurawa killed 160–170+ in Woro and Nuku—residents were rounded up, bound, and executed. This follows December–January questions over targeting of ISIS networks in the northwest.
- Ukraine: Deep freeze meets a roughly 40% power deficit; emergency cogen units from Germany are arriving as Kyiv imports power and rushes transformer replacements.
- Iran/US: Oman talks prep resumes amid a weeks‑long blackout. Rights monitors confirm about 6,000 deaths; Iran admits roughly half that.
- Gaza: Aid flows remain at about 43% of agreed levels; 37 aid groups remain banned as the UAE drafts a housing compound near Rafah.
- Minnesota: After mass protests, court fights, and two civilian deaths, Washington pulled 700 agents but operations continue; retaliation claims persist.
- Haiti: Three days to the Feb 7 mandate cliff; a provisional path would see Judge Jean Joseph Lebrun as interim president while elections remain “materially impossible.”
- UN rights: The UN human rights office says it’s in “survival mode,” seeking $400M to sustain work in 17 countries, including Chad and Myanmar.
- Markets/tech: U.S. tech rout extends; AI labs unveil faster, more capable agents, with claims of hundreds of high‑severity bug finds.
Underreported, confirmed by our scans:
- Sudan: Famine warnings intensify; 33.7M need aid as cholera and hunger spread across all 18 states—coverage remains minimal relative to scale.
- USAID cuts: A Lancet-linked analysis projects 9.4M deaths by 2030 tied to aid retrenchment; other studies warn higher totals when allies’ cuts are included.
- DRC: M23 pressure around Goma persists; 5.35M displaced, banks closed a year on.
- Yemen: 23.1M need assistance in 2026; coverage thin.
AI Context Discovery
Historical searches performed for this analysis:
• New START treaty expiration and nuclear arms control gap (6 months)
• Nigeria Kwara massacres and Lakurawa ISIS affiliate activity (3 months)
• Sudan humanitarian crisis famine displacement (6 months)
• USAID cuts global mortality projections Lancet 2026 (6 months)
• Haiti Feb 7 mandate succession mechanism Judge Jean Joseph Lebrun (3 months)
• Ukraine energy grid attacks winter power deficit (3 months)
• Iran protests blackout casualty estimates HRANA (3 months)
• Minnesota federal immigration operations protests legal actions (1 month)
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