The World Watches
Today in The World Watches, we focus on the first nuclear gap in more than half a century. With New START expiring on February 5, Washington and Moscow now trade contradictory signals: U.S. officials hint they won’t “stray” from limits even as Russia says no obligations remain. High‑level military contacts have resumed, but the 1,550‑warhead cap is no longer binding. This unfolds as Russia intensifies strikes on Ukraine’s grid — over 400 drones and 40+ missiles on Feb 8 alone — driving a roughly 40% power deficit. NATO, meanwhile, has surged Arctic visibility with Operation Arctic Sentry after the Greenland row. Why it leads: nuclear ambiguity plus energy warfare and northern militarization widen risk, from deterrence stability to humanitarian fallout in Ukraine’s winter.
Global Gist
Today in Global Gist — the hour’s essentials and what’s missing
- U.K.: Political leaders condemn comments by Manchester United co‑owner Jim Ratcliffe claiming the U.K. was “colonised” by immigrants; PM pressed to seek an apology.
- U.S. politics: ICE funding fights heat up on Capitol Hill; swing‑state voters express anxiety over tactics but oppose “abolish ICE.” CBO projects worsening deficits as entitlement and interest costs rise; watchdog pegs a further $1.4T deficit hit from Trump policies.
- Security: FAA briefly closed El Paso airspace amid reports of cartel drone incursions; details disputed between FAA, DOD, and the White House.
- Middle East: Trump says Iran talks continue after meeting Netanyahu; reports say U.S. forces have withdrawn from Syria’s Al‑Tanf to Jordan while coordination persists.
- Europe/Trade: EU touts “turbo” FTA pace; Parliament advances a €90B interest‑free loan package for Ukraine.
- Tech/business: Musk reorganizes xAI; EssilorLuxottica sold 7M Meta smart glasses in 2025; Anthropic pledges to boost grid capacity and offset bills tied to data centers.
- Disasters/migration: Madagascar’s Cyclone Gezani kills at least 31, devastates Toamasina and the Atsinanana region. Off Libya, 53 migrants dead or missing after a capsize.
- Elections: Bangladesh votes tomorrow in its first poll since Hasina’s ouster; analysts call it a “canary in the coalmine” for Global South shifts.
Underreported, confirmed by our historical scan:
- Aid retrenchment mortality: Independent analyses over recent months project tens of millions of preventable deaths by 2030 from U.S./allied aid cuts, including a sharp rise in under‑5 mortality this year.
- Sudan’s famine: UN‑backed monitors warn famine is spreading in Darfur; 33.7M need aid — coverage remains scant relative to scale.
- Haiti’s handover: The Transitional Presidential Council stepped down Feb 7–8, transferring power to U.S.-backed PM Fils‑Aimé amid gang violence and “materially impossible” elections.
- Nigeria massacre: 160+ killed Feb 4 in Kwara State attacks tied to jihadist factions — one of 2026’s deadliest incidents.
AI Context Discovery
Historical searches performed for this analysis:
• USAID cuts mortality projection 9.4M deaths by 2030 Lancet (1 year)
• Sudan famine and atrocities El-Fasher genocide warnings 33.7M need aid (6 months)
• Ukraine power deficit after Russian drone and missile strikes on energy infrastructure (3 months)
• Haiti Transitional Presidential Council dissolved and PM Fils-Aimé sole executive authority (3 months)
• Iran protests death toll HRANA blackout arrests economic collapse (6 months)
• Gaza ceasefire violations, aid access levels, Phase 2 military operations (3 months)
• New START treaty expiration and contradictory compliance statements (1 year)
• Nigeria Kwara massacre Woro village Feb 4 JAS Lakurawa warnings (3 months)
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