The World Watches
Today in The World Watches, we focus on the sudden slide from talks to war between the US–Israel and Iran. As night fell over Tehran, coordinated strikes hit sites in Tehran, Isfahan, Karaj, Kermanshah, Qom, and Tabriz. Iranian retaliation followed within hours: missile volleys toward Israel and simultaneous strikes on US bases across the Gulf — Al Udeid in Qatar, the 5th Fleet in Bahrain, Al Dhafra in the UAE, and Al Salem in Kuwait. Officials report no confirmed US fatalities; debris killed at least one worker in the UAE. A strike on a girls’ school in Minab, Hormozgan, reportedly killed more than 50 students; attribution remains contested but would be the defining humanitarian image of this war. Airspace closures ripple across the Gulf; shippers pause Hormuz transits as oil eyes $100. Why it leads: geopolitical weight and timing. Our historical check shows weeks of force buildup, a nuclear deadline closing, and warnings of a “weeks‑long” campaign if diplomacy failed — and it just did.
Global Gist
Today in Global Gist — the hour’s essentials and what’s missing
- Middle East war: Washington calls this “major combat operations,” targeting Iranian missiles, navy, and leadership nodes; images show heavy damage near Khamenei’s compound, with his status unconfirmed. UK aircraft patrol in defensive roles; Canada and EU leaders urge civilian protection and UN action.
- Pakistan–Afghanistan: Islamabad’s Operation Ghazab Lil Haq expands, claiming 300+ Taliban killed across multiple provinces. Kabul reports civilian deaths and vows to respond. Our historical scan confirms both sides crossed thresholds this week; no exit ramp visible.
- Energy and shipping: Gulf airspace closures and Hormuz risk push traders to reprice supply shocks; Maersk diverts around Suez as Red Sea threats re‑emerge. Three weeks of drills and partial Hormuz shutdowns set the stage for today’s spike.
- AI governance crisis: The US labels Anthropic a national‑security supply‑chain risk after it refused uses involving autonomous weapons and mass surveillance; agencies received an order to phase out Anthropic while OpenAI won a contract with similar red lines. Anthropic sued this morning, escalating a precedent for defense tech norms.
- Underreported — confirmed by our scan:
• Sudan: Famine conditions deepen; over 24 million food‑insecure, with genocide allegations around El‑Fasher. Coverage today is near zero.
• South Sudan: New civil‑war front displaces 280,000+, airstrikes on civilians reported; 450,000 children face acute malnutrition.
• DRC: WFP halts aid to 1.7 million without new funds; $349 million gap.
• Ethiopia–Eritrea: Border troop movements raise war risk; refugee aid shortfalls widen.
Insight Analytica
Today in Insight Analytica, the threads connect. Kinetic campaigns are colliding with chokepoints: Red Sea interdictions and Hormuz jitters elevate shipping costs, insurance premia, and food/fuel prices. Donor fatigue and budget cuts turn conflict shocks into hunger at scale in Sudan, South Sudan, and the DRC. Meanwhile, the AI procurement fight shows how military demand can reshape tech markets overnight, centralizing capabilities even as vendors press for ethical red lines.
AI Context Discovery
Historical searches performed for this analysis:
• US–Iran escalation and Operation Epic Fury (3 months)
• Pakistan–Afghanistan cross-border conflict and Operation Ghazab Lil Haq (1 month)
• Africa crisis coverage suppression and major humanitarian emergencies (Sudan, South Sudan, DRC, Ethiopia) (3 months)
• Anthropic vs US government AI governance dispute and federal procurement (2 weeks)
• Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping risks, oil price shocks (1 month)
Top Stories This Hour
What we know so far
Middle East Conflict • http://feeds.bbci.co.uk/news/rss.xml
• Iran
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• Tehran, Iran
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• Japan
ISW Daily Assessment - February 28, 2026
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• Ukraine