A pattern that bears watching is institutional “exit pressure”: the UAE leaving Opec, tech supply chains tightening via export controls, and governments treating security incidents as catalysts for legal action. Does this reflect a world shifting from coalition management to unilateral risk control—each actor trying to reduce dependence on shared rules? A competing interpretation is that these are domain-specific events: oil quotas, courtroom politics, and chip tools may be moving independently, with timing that’s more coincidental than causal.
Another question: if maritime insecurity (Hormuz disruptions, Somali piracy) keeps widening, do states double down on hard security—convoys, interdictions, blockades—or pivot toward negotiated corridors? The data we lack is crucial: credible verification of who can guarantee safe passage, and at what cost.