A pattern that bears watching is how often “verification” has become the real scarcity, not rhetoric. In the Gulf, [BBC News] lays out maximal U.S. demands while Iran disputes the premise of nuclear talks — raising the question of whether negotiators are converging on implementation steps (mines, inspections, escrow mechanics) or merely trading public red lines. In Europe, [Defense News] describes GPS spoofing and drone diversion into NATO airspace; if correct, it suggests a strategy of turning guidance systems into political incidents rather than simply military strikes.
A competing interpretation is that these are parallel problems with different roots: a negotiation stalled by domestic veto players in the Middle East, and an electronic-warfare adaptation cycle in Eastern Europe. We still lack the missing middle — the technical annexes, enforcement triggers, and independent confirmation of key claims in both theaters.