A pattern that bears watching is how civilian systems are becoming the scoreboard, even when leaders insist targets are “military.” If wildfires force evacuations at the scale [BBC News] and [France24] describe, and war-linked maritime tensions keep spreading to secondary fronts like Yemen ([DW]), does crisis governance increasingly hinge on logistics—water, power, transport, insurance—more than formal battlefield lines? A competing interpretation is simpler: these are unrelated shocks cresting together in peak summer, with correlation mistaken for coordination. The ICC’s leadership upheaval ([NPR]) raises a different question: if international legal institutions look unstable, do states lean more on unilateral tools—tariffs, sanctions, or strikes—because legitimacy pathways feel slower or less predictable? We still lack consistent, independently verified metrics for “de-escalation” across these arenas.