Does the simultaneous pressure on Hormuz and Black Sea export infrastructure indicate that commercial transit is becoming more dependent on military permission, insurance, and negotiated exceptions? The evidence supports serious disruption in both places, but not a single coordinated strategy: these wars involve distinct actors, objectives, and timelines. A separate pattern bears watching in Romania, where drought-driven low Danube levels forced closure of the Cernavoda nuclear plant, while Hungary tried to preserve cooling water for Paks [DW]. If further verified, this could suggest climate extremes are becoming a direct constraint on energy systems. Yet one episode cannot establish a broad trend, and local hydrology, plant design, and policy choices matter.