Week of March 23-29, 2026

THE WORLD THIS WEEK

Operation Epic Fury entered its second month with three developments that changed the war's trajectory. The Houthis opened a second front on March 28, firing their first ballistic missiles at Israel since the war began and threatening to close the Bab al-Mandeb strait — which would seal both ends of the Middle East's energy corridor. Iran formalized a yuan-denominated toll system at Hormuz, though maritime tracking confirms near-zero transit; hundreds of vessels remain anchored off Dubai and Fujairah. Brent crude hit $112.57, up 51% in a month. The US national average for gasoline reached $3.98 per AAA — up one dollar since February 26. Trump extended his power-plant strike deadline to April 6, buying 10 days that diplomacy has so far failed to use. Iran's counterproposal remains structurally incompatible with US demands. On the ground, the Pentagon is preparing options for Kharg Island operations as a third carrier strike group transits toward the Gulf. In Lebanon, the death toll reached 1,189 per the health ministry. And across Africa, WFP confirmed its Sudan food stocks will be fully depleted by end of March — affecting 21 million people in acute hunger — while global coverage of the continent fell to 3.7%.

WHAT CHANGED

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

Houthis entered the war (March 28). Yemen's Houthi forces fired their first ballistic and cruise missiles at southern Israel since Operation Epic Fury began. Both were intercepted with no casualties, per the IDF. A Houthi deputy minister told Al Araby TV that closing the Bab al-Mandeb strait is "among our options." Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are modeling $130+ Brent scenarios contingent on simultaneous Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb closure.

Trump extended the strike deadline to April 6 (March 26). The president posted on Truth Social granting a 10-day extension on the power-plant strike pause, framing it as an "Iranian government request." Tehran publicly denied requesting any extension. Iran's 5-condition counterproposal — including war reparations and sovereignty over Hormuz toll revenue — remains structurally incompatible with US demands. No face-to-face meeting has occurred.

IRGC Navy command destroyed (March 26). Israel killed IRGC Navy commander Admiral Alireza Tangsiri, intelligence chief Behnam Rezaei, and the senior command staff in a strike on Bandar Abbas. The Hormuz blockade continued unchanged — the closure is an IRGC institutional decision, not dependent on individual commanders. On March 27, Iran turned back two Chinese COSCO vessels, the first time Beijing's ships were blocked.

Prince Sultan Air Base struck (March 28). Iran hit the Saudi-based US facility with 6 ballistic missiles and 29 drones, wounding 12-15 US troops per AP. An E-3 Sentry AWACS early-warning aircraft was damaged along with KC-135 tankers. CENTCOM has now struck over 11,000 targets in Iran across 11,000+ combat flights, per its March 28 update.

Pentagon planning Kharg Island ground operations (March 29). The Washington Post and Al Jazeera reported the Pentagon is preparing a framework for "weeks of ground operations" including potential seizure of Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal. The 31st MEU (3,500 Marines) arrived March 27. A third carrier strike group is en route. No ground combat has been authorized.

Lebanon death toll reached 1,189 (March 28). The Lebanese health ministry reported 1,189 killed including 118 children and 3,427 wounded since March 2, per WAFA. Approximately 1.2 million people — 20% of Lebanon's population — are displaced. The IDF estimates at least three more weeks of operations.

Russia launched spring offensive against Ukraine's Fortress Belt (March 23). Russian forces initiated the Spring-Summer 2026 campaign in Donetsk Oblast with approximately 10,000 Russian troops killed or wounded in the first week, per Western estimates and Ukrainian General Staff figures — a daily rate of 1,520 casualties that analysts describe as unsustainable. US-brokered peace talks remain on hold since the Iran war consumed Washington's attention. The February Geneva round produced a POW exchange; the March round in the UAE was postponed. Russia's total losses since February 2022 have reached approximately 1.3 million personnel, per Ukraine's General Staff.

THE BLIND SPOTS

Africa received 3.7% of global news coverage this week across our 41 monitored sources — 134 stories out of 3,600 — while three simultaneous food crises affected over 50 million people.

The World Food Programme confirmed its Sudan food stocks will be fully depleted by end of March, per a January warning that no emergency resupply has reversed. WFP requires $700 million through June to sustain operations for 21 million people in acute hunger. Famine is confirmed in Al Fasher and Kadugli, with 20 additional areas at risk. On March 26, drone strikes killed 28 civilians, per The Guardian. This received one article in our pipeline.

In the DRC, food assistance has been cut from 2.3 million to 600,000 recipients, with a complete halt projected. Goma and Bukavu airports remain closed. In South Sudan, 28,000 people are in IPC Phase 5 Catastrophe as the lean season begins in April.

In Cuba, 11 million people endured three complete nationwide grid collapses in seven days (March 16, 21, 22). Daily blackouts reach 15 hours in Havana, worse in the interior. Cuba has received zero oil imports for three months following Trump's executive order blocking any country from selling fuel to the island. Nearly one million Cubans depend on electric pumps for drinking water — when the grid fails, the water stops, per NPR. Trump publicly mused about "taking Cuba" during the March 16 blackout.

These crises are not paused because the cameras moved to the Gulf.

LOOKING AHEAD

April 6: Trump's deadline for resumed strikes on Iranian power plants. If no diplomatic breakthrough, significant escalation expected. Oil markets will price this in days before.

Early April: South Sudan lean season begins (IPC projection April-July). 7.55 million people enter peak food insecurity.

This week: Houthi follow-up attacks on Israel or Red Sea shipping. A Bab al-Mandeb closure would create a dual-chokepoint crisis and push oil toward Goldman's $130 scenario.

This week: Pentagon ground authorization decision. Kharg Island planning is active. Congressional authorization has failed three times — any ground operation would be unilateral.

April (no fixed date): US gas approaching $4/gal nationally per AAA. Crossing that threshold has historically triggered political consequences for sitting presidents.

June 2026: FIFA World Cup opens in Mexico, the US, and Canada. Guadalajara — a host city — was nearly shut down in February when CJNG launched 250+ roadblocks across 20 states after cartel leader El Mencho was killed. The succession battle is ongoing with no resolution in sight.

On the Strait of Hormuz: Maritime tracking data (MarineTraffic, Strait of Hormuz) shows near-zero vessel transit through the strait as of March 29, with hundreds of ships anchored off Dubai and Fujairah. Note: AIS data in conflict zones may be affected by signal jamming.

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Sources: Al Jazeera live tracker, Hengaw Human Rights Organization (Reports 6-7), Lebanese Ministry of Public Health, CENTCOM, AAA, WFP, IEA, CNBC, Washington Post, AP, France 24, Axios, Lloyd's List, Goldman Sachs, Time, The Guardian, WAFA, MarineTraffic, NPR, ISW/Critical Threats, Ukrainian General Staff, RTE News